Nearly 60% of the approximately nine million registered Hispanic voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party (Pew Research Center, December 2007). Many analysts and news agencies look at this segment of the population as a key ‘swing vote’ group. And most see the growing dissatisfaction over the immigration debate as a factor in the decrease of the Republican Party Hispanic base. At the same time, the number of Hispanic voters turning out for Democratic primaries and caucuses has risen sharply across the board. Many major media outlets, including The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and the Associated Press have pointed toward the immigration issue, and Bush’s immigration reform, as playing a significant part in the lean toward the Democratic Party.

Hispanics are the nation's fastest growing minority group and make up about 15% of the U.S. population, surpassing African-Americans in 2003 to become the largest minority. Their electoral importance continues to be challenged, however, by the fact that many are ineligible to vote, either because they are not citizens or not yet 18 years old and the fact that there are still more African-Americans registered to vote.

In 2008, Latinos will comprise about 9% of the eligible electorate nationwide. Some of this rise in turnout may be due to demographic growth plus as naturalizations increase and U.S.-born Latinos are turning 18, the number of eligible voters is growing.

But despite these low numbers, analysts and many major media channels look at the Hispanic vote as a potential "swing vote" in the upcoming presidential election. That's because a large percentage of these voters are located in key states of importance in terms of Electoral impact, including California, Texas, New York, and Florida.

A look at the Democratic caucuses
Senator Hillary Clinton won the Latino vote on “Super Tuesday” by a two-to-one margin in key states such as New York, California, and New Jersey. According to NPR’s Nancy Cook, that gave her “a decisive win with the fastest-growing demographic in the country, possibly setting the stage for the general election when Latinos could make a huge difference in swing states.”

Immigration reform continues to be a key topic of debate and point of contention among Hispanic voters – and have pushed many to the Democratic platform. But among Hispanic voters, immigration ranks below education and healthcare in terms of issue importance. Both topics which are heavily emphasized in Sen. Clinton’s campaign.

“Thus, the Clinton campaign plays up the Clinton health plan and the fact that her plan demands universal coverage for all Americans while Obama's does not.” (Kaufman, “The Battle for the Hispanic Vote, Wall Street Journal, Jan. 29, 2008).

A March 11, 2008 article in The New York Times, “Wooing the Hispanic Votes,” stated that of the two Democratic campaigners “Senator Clinton’s more policy-oriented stump speeches seem to have hit more of the right notes with Hispanic voters.” Specifically, it cites an analysis by the Pew Hispanic Center which assessed that the results in California, Texas, and New Mexico would have been different had Latinos not voted in such large numbers and for Sen. Clinton. Latino voters represented 30 percent of California voters on “Super Tuesday.” Sen. Clinton won by carrying the Hispanic vote by a margin of two-to-one against Sen. Obama in all three states, but she lost among non-Hispanics in Texas (55 to 44 percent) and New Mexico (56 to 41 percent).

So is it Senator Clinton as the Democratic Presidential candidate in 2008? If you look at the Hispanic vote as a swing vote, it seems to point in that direction – especially within the key electoral states of California and New York.

To find out more about the U.S. political industry, access this issue’s useful links and industry events.

SOURCES:
Pew Hispanic Research Center: “The Hispanic Vote in the 2008 Presidential Primaries.”
Hispanic News
The New York Times
Associated Press
U.S. Census Bureau
Voto Hispanic